Learning , Rational Expecta - tions and Policy : A Summary of Recent Research I I
نویسنده
چکیده
N THE THREE DECADES since the publication of the seminal work on rational expectations, a steely consensus has been forged in the economics profession regarding acceptable modeling procedures.’ Simply stated, the consensus is that economic actors do not persist in making foolish mistakes in forecasting over time. People are presumed to be able to both detect past patterns in their prediction errors and base their behavior on the “best possible” forecast of future economic conditions. In the classic phrase of Robert Lucas, the predictions of individuals must be “. . free of systematic and easily correctable biases.” The current wide acceptability of this notion is testament to the success of the rational expectations revolution.
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